Ten Map Meditations on Economic Mobility : Education Next
The map shows, by small geographic areas, the likelihood that a child
born into the lowest-income quintile ended up (as an adult) in the
highest-income quintile.
This isn’t the necessarily the best indicator of economic mobility, but it is still edifying. (The fantastic interactive map from the Times allows you to look at mobility from a number of other angles, as well).
A whole lot of staring at this map and some additional research has produced ten thoughts—most of them gloomy.
1. The miniscule chance of a rags-to-riches rise in some locations
takes my breath away. In Memphis, the chance of this “lowest-to-highest”
movement is only 2.6 percent. Atlanta, at 4 percent, is barely better.
2. The stickiness of poverty in some locations is heartrending. In
most of the red areas in the Mississippi Delta, a child born into a
family at the tenth percentile of earnings has a 75 percent chance of
having an adulthood in one of the bottom two economic quintiles.
This is a catastrophic distortion of the American Dream.
3. The belt of red in the Southeast is absolutely shameful. An entire
swath of our nation is constricting the opportunities of low-income
kids. The “Rust Belt,” once the nation’s manufacturing hub, consisting
of cities like Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and St.
Louis, is almost as sad.
4. I’m somewhat heartened by the greenish areas of significant
“lowest-to-highest” mobility stretching vertically from North Dakota to
Texas and radiating west into Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado and
east into Minnesota and Iowa. I need to do more research to understand
what’s happening (perhaps various industries or cultural practices are
at play).
5. This second map, also from the Times,
seems to partially explain variation in mobility rates. Areas with low
overall poverty rates seem to provide a better chance of substantial
upward mobility for the poorest kids. Areas with concentrated poverty
appear to do the opposite.
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