Black Voter Turnout Could Make A Big Difference In Several Swing States, Report Finds
The number of black voters who turn out to vote in the upcoming elections could play a huge role in several swing states, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Urban League.
A swell of black voters was the difference in several states in 2008, according to the report, which focused on North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio in particular. "Essentially, African American voters in a number of key states hold the key to the outcome of the 2012 election," Marc Morial, the Urban League's president, said.
According to the report, the voter turnout rate among African Americans jumped 5 percentage points between 2004 and 2008, from 60 percent to 65 percent. The 2008 election also saw 2.4 million more black voters cast ballots than in 2004 -- more than double the pace at which the country's black population grew.
"If turnout goes back to what it was in 2004, it will have a huge impact in North Carolina," Madura Wijewardena, an analyst at the Urban League, said. If black voting reverts to its 2004 levels, it could mean President Barack Obama would lose North Carolina, and he would face uphill battles in Ohio and Virginia as well.
Ohio, the third state in the study and another won by Obama in 2008, is a famous bellwether of national elections. Ohio has voted for every presidential winner, except one, since 1944.
The study found that black turnout, by percentage of eligible voters, nearly reached parity with that of white voters in 2008. "In 2008, there was only a 1.8 percent difference in black and white turnout," said Chanelle Hardy, the Urban League's policy director. "That's just an amazingly high water mark for democracy. Armed with that information, we're in a strong position to tell each and every African American voter -- 'your vote does matter."
African-American voters are the most likely group to actually vote if they are registered, according to the study. About 93 percent of registered blacks vote in national elections, compared to 90 percent of whites and 84 percent of Hispanics.
But it was among younger voters that the surge of African Americans to the polls was most evident. Among voters between 18 and 44, blacks actually outpaced whites. For the first time in history, whites were not the biggest proportion of an age group, Wijewardena said.
Morial said that given these trends, it's not a coincidence that Republican-dominated legislatures have passed voter ID laws, which require voters to provide certain forms of official ID in order to vote. "We think it has a lot to do with the fact that you had extraordinary turnout in 2008," he said.
Proponents of the laws say they are designed to reduce voter fraud. But voting rights organizations, like the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University,
point out that voter fraud is extremely rare, while others point out that the groups most likely to be affected because they do not have IDs are African Americans, Latinos, young people and the poor -- groups that tend to vote for Democrats.
Nate Silver, the statistician at
The New York Times's FiveThirtyEight blog,
wrote on Sunday that it's unclear just how much of an impact the new voter ID laws will have on turnout this fall.
"Nevertheless, it’s clear enough that stricter voter ID requirements are probably bad for Democrats, on balance," Silver wrote. "In almost every state where the ID laws have been at issue, Republican governors and legislatures have been on the side of passing stricter ones, while Democrats have sought to block them."
President Obama is scheduled to attend the Urban League's annual national convention next week in New Orleans.
New Era, New Tactics, New Focus
Most of the elected officials and those wanted to become elected officials invest too much time and money into the organizations such as the NAACP, Urban League and churches. While these organizations have some impact the non-traditional organizations are the best investment for the 2012 elections. This is due to the fact traditional organizations are not as relevant to the 18 to 30 demographic.
While many of the CT democrats are expecting to gain the vote of the minorities and youth due to President Obama re-election bid, they need to develop new and better strategies rather than rely on the results of the 2008 elections. The best place to start is with the youth and non-traditional voters. While the NAACP and churches are focused on voter registration the key factor to winning will be voter education.
Many poorly advised and less savvy voters registered in 2008 need to be education on the following:
- Registration is not required unless you have changed residence
- It is easy to confirm your voter registration status by calling the registrar of voters
- If you were convicted of a felony, your right to vote is restored as long as you are
not in prison or on community custody
- Once your right to vote is restored, you must re-register in order to receive a ballot.
the registrar of voters’ office in your town or city
- You do not lose the right to vote for a misdemeanor conviction or a conviction in
juvenile court
To the folks that will be in primaries on August 4, 2012 if you want exposure to the black community the best investment you can make is to advertise on BlackCT e-mail blast. BlackCT e-mail blast has over 15,000 registered recipients and is trusted based on integrity. The cost for political ads is only $100 per week; however, BlackCT reserves the right to screen and approval all ads before committing to placement. Simply e-mail
jere@blackct.us for more information.
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