(Ficklin Media Note: We should always remember that the political civil wars are always ongoing- never forget that the term southern democrats had application detrimental to the progress of un naturalized Africans in America. Never forget that Strom Thurmond who died as a Republican Senator, was initially a Democrat. More recently do not forget the Bloomberg was a democrat before switching to the republican party.Guiliani was a democrat before switching to the republican party. And does the renegade Joe Lieberman sound familiar? Upon signing the civil rights bill, LBJ was heard to say, there goes the south, with reference to the south being a solid democratic stronghold.)
21 House Seats Move Toward GOP
from "The Rothenberg Political Report"
21 House Seats Move Toward GOP
During our quarterly overview of all of the House races across the country, we moved 21 House seats toward the Republicans. On top of that, Republicans gained Alabama's 5th District when Cong. Parker Griffith switched to the GOP before Christmas. His seat moved from Lean Democratic to Currently Safe for the GOP.
We moved only one seat toward the Democrats (New York's 23rd). Despite recent GOP retirements in California's 19th District (George Radanovich) and South Carolina's 1st District (Henry Brown), the two seats don't make our list at this point.
And as we said in our latest overview, substantial Republican gains now look almost inevitable, with net Democratic losses likely to exceed a dozen. While Democratic control of the House is not yet at risk, losses of 15-20 seats are likely, and that target range could well grow with additional Democratic retirements and voter anger. Griffith's switch means Republicans net 40 seats for the majority.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Pure Toss-Up (2 R, 13 D)
AL 2 (Bright, D)
CO 4 (Markey, D) *
FL 8 (Grayson, D)
ID 1 (Minnick, D)
IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
MS 1 (Childers, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
PA 6 (Open; Gerlach, R)
PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
WA 3 (Open; Baird, D) *
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (1 R, 4 D)
KS 3 (Open; Moore, D) *
LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
NM 2 (Teague, D)*
VA 5 (Perriello, D)*
WA 8 (Reichert, R)
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)
FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
IL 14 (Foster, D)
MI 7 (Schauer, D)
Lean Republican (1 R, 1 D)
CA 3 (Lungren, R)
TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *
Lean Democratic (0 R, 9 D)
AR 2 (Snyder, D) *
HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) * Special Election
MO 4 (Skelton, D) *
NV 3 (Titus, D) *
NY 19 (Hall, D) *
NY 23 (Owens, D) #
NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
NY 29 (Massa, D)
VA 2 (Nye, D) *
Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)
CA 44 (Calvert, R) *
CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
NE 2 (Terry, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
PA 15 (Dent, R)
Democrat Favored (2 R, 16 D)
AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
AR 1 (Berry, D) *
CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D) *
IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
LA 2 (Cao, R)
NY 20 (Murphy, D)
NC 8 (Kissell, D)
OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D) *
TX 17 (Edwards, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D) *
Total seats in play: 60
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 46
21 House Seats Move Toward GOP
from "The Rothenberg Political Report"
21 House Seats Move Toward GOP
During our quarterly overview of all of the House races across the country, we moved 21 House seats toward the Republicans. On top of that, Republicans gained Alabama's 5th District when Cong. Parker Griffith switched to the GOP before Christmas. His seat moved from Lean Democratic to Currently Safe for the GOP.
We moved only one seat toward the Democrats (New York's 23rd). Despite recent GOP retirements in California's 19th District (George Radanovich) and South Carolina's 1st District (Henry Brown), the two seats don't make our list at this point.
And as we said in our latest overview, substantial Republican gains now look almost inevitable, with net Democratic losses likely to exceed a dozen. While Democratic control of the House is not yet at risk, losses of 15-20 seats are likely, and that target range could well grow with additional Democratic retirements and voter anger. Griffith's switch means Republicans net 40 seats for the majority.
Here are our latest House ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans
Pure Toss-Up (2 R, 13 D)
AL 2 (Bright, D)
CO 4 (Markey, D) *
FL 8 (Grayson, D)
ID 1 (Minnick, D)
IL 10 (Open; Kirk, R)
MD 1 (Kratovil, D)
MS 1 (Childers, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
NH 2 (Open; Hodes, D)
OH 1 (Driehaus, D)
OH 15 (Kilroy, D)
PA 6 (Open; Gerlach, R)
PA 7 (Open; Sestak, D)
TN 8 (Open; Tanner, D)
WA 3 (Open; Baird, D) *
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican (1 R, 4 D)
KS 3 (Open; Moore, D) *
LA 3 (Open; Melancon, D)
NM 2 (Teague, D)*
VA 5 (Perriello, D)*
WA 8 (Reichert, R)
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic (0 R, 3 D)
FL 24 (Kosmas, D)
IL 14 (Foster, D)
MI 7 (Schauer, D)
Lean Republican (1 R, 1 D)
CA 3 (Lungren, R)
TN 6 (Open; Gordon, D) *
Lean Democratic (0 R, 9 D)
AR 2 (Snyder, D) *
HI 1 (Open; Abercrombie, D) * Special Election
MO 4 (Skelton, D) *
NV 3 (Titus, D) *
NY 19 (Hall, D) *
NY 23 (Owens, D) #
NY 24 (Arcuri, D)
NY 29 (Massa, D)
VA 2 (Nye, D) *
Republican Favored (8 R, 0 D)
CA 44 (Calvert, R) *
CA 45 (Bono Mack, R)
MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
NE 2 (Terry, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 12 (Tiberi, R)
PA 15 (Dent, R)
Democrat Favored (2 R, 16 D)
AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
AR 1 (Berry, D) *
CA 47 (Sanchez, D)
DE A-L (Open; Castle, R)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D) *
IA 3 (Boswell, D) *
LA 2 (Cao, R)
NY 20 (Murphy, D)
NC 8 (Kissell, D)
OH 16 (Boccieri, D) *
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *
SC 5 (Spratt, D) *
SD A-L (Herseth Sandlin, D) *
TX 17 (Edwards, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D) *
Total seats in play: 60
Republican seats: 14
Democratic seats: 46
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